With Black Adam releasing this week, the question on everyone’s mind, is How Much Does Black Adam Need To Earn To Be Profitable? There are a few factors to consider, as we are not only in the age of theatrical profits but also streaming and VOD as well. So let’s start with the facts, Black Adam reportedly has a budget of between $185m and $200m, the general rule of thumb is that a film needs to earn back 2X its budget to between making a profit (there are exceptions to this rule but let’s go with this one for now).
How Much Does Black Adam Need To Earn To Be Profitable?
This would mean that Black Adam would need to earn around $400m worldwide to be profitable, this tracks with how Shazam performed back in 2019, when it opened to $53m and legged out to $140m domestic and $365m worldwide, on a $100m budget. Another similar film is Doctor Strange, which opened to $85m and legged out to $232m domestic and $677m worldwide, on a $165m budget. Black Adam is set to open to between $65m and $75m opening weekend, now using Shazam’s 2.6 theatrical multiplier that would take Black Adam to a total domestic total of $169m-$195m. Using Doctor Stranges 2.7 multiplier, Black Adam gets a domestic total of between $175m-$202m. Both of the above totals would be excellent!
Now let’s do a rundown on how Black Adam fairs if it performs closer to Zack Snyder’s, Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice, if Black Adam finishes its run with a 1.9 multiplier, we will see it close domestically with between $123m-$142m. This is a worst case scenario, while its critical reviews are not outstanding, they also do not signal a cataclysmic collapse in its second weekend like Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice. Now even with a terrible multiplier of 1.9 Black Adam would still be considered a success with a domestic total of 4140m+.
How Much Does Black Adam Need To Earn To Be Profitable?
At the end of the day, The Rock is a huge name in Hollywood and very popular with movie watchers, he also commands a huge audience overseas, and the overseas total is becoming more and more important today. The likely scenario is that Black Adam plays somewhere between Venom and Doctor Strange on the high end, or between $650m and $800m worldwide. On the low end we could seen a performance between Shazam and Venom 2, or $400m and $500m.
Either way Black Adam is headed towards profitability, moviegoers are starved for a blockbuster, as Thor:Love and Thunder was the last one way back in July. The only question that remains is if Black Adam indeed is successful enough to launche a sub-universe within the DCEU as The Rock intends. Reports are that there is plans for the Justice Socioty of America (Hawkman and Dr. Fate) to head up spin-offs and The Rock has said he intends for Black Adam to take a place in the greater DCEU. If the film fails to take off at the box office or is just a moderate success, expect Black Adam to stay within his own sequels, and the JSA spin-offs to be canned.
Lastly post pandemic, streaming and VOD has become a major source of venanue for films, and it is expected that Black Adam will likely have a 45 day release window before heading to HBO Max, where it likely will end up as one of the streamers biggest hits. Even if Black Adam underperformers in theaters, if the film is a huge hit on HBO Max and rentals and purchases on VOD are large, we could still see the film get a sequel.
If Black Adam is a runaway hit, then expect Black Adam to take his place as a leader in the DCEU, and for the hyarchy of power in the DC universe to change.
