Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire has been released to much fanfare from fans but less than wonderful reviews from critics. With Part 2 titled Rebel Moon – Part Two: The Scargiver still on the way and two director cuts coming this summer, many are asking Was Rebel Moon A Success For Netflix? Well, the answer to that is not a simple “yes or no” There are many things at play with this franchise, so let’s examine them one by one to finally answer the question Was Rebel Moon A Success?
Was Rebel Moon A Success: Budget
First off when looking at If Was Rebel Moon A Success, streaming films don’t have the same ROI (Return on Investment) as theatrical films do, however, it is still possible for streaming services to measure how much value the film or films bring to the platform. For most films, the metric is one or more of the following
- Increase subscribers
- Decrease churn
- Encourage content engagment
Rebel Moon is said to have a combined budget of 165 million dollars, which comes to about $85 million per film. Now this is a very reasonable number for a large-scale sci-fi movie that is told in two parts, add onto that, Zack Snyder is delivering two extended Directors Cuts that are said to have 60 minutes of extra footage per film. So in reality Netflix got 4 movies for $165 million, which is a great deal for them no matter which way one slices it.
By releasing the two films 5 months apart and then the two extended cuts in the summer, Netflix encourages its subscribers to stay subbed and then see other content that is dropped on the platform in the meantime.
Was Rebel Moon A Success: Views
We don’t have the full picture or final number of views for Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire yet. However, we know that it is nearing 100 million views, as of January 11 it was at 78 million views, which is very good but also not enough for it to crack the Netflix Top 10 All-Time list. That may sound bad, however, remember that not all Netflix franchises hit the Top 10, it’s a nice award but not necessary for success.
Second, views are not the only metric of success, Netflix also looks at the engagement for the movie, for example, if a film gets 120 million views, but 90 million of those people turned it off in the first 5 minutes, Netflix would consider that a failure. Look at Micheal Bay’s action film 6 Underground It was for a long time, one of Netflix’s most-watched films ever, however, notice we do not have a sequel to it. This likely means the movie had a bad engagement score (I turned it off in the first 10 minutes). Netflix cares more about people engaging with the content than views.
Was Rebel Moon A Success: Cast
The cast of Rebel Moon is full of “That Guy/Gal” actors and many character actors as well, however, it does not have an A-lister leading it, which has led to it falling behind other films and likely resulted in its failure to hit the Netflix Top 10. Star-led films may not move the needle at the box office, but on streaming having a recognizable face can push a film into the stratosphere. A cetin Forbes article criticized Rebel Moon for not matching up to other films like Leave the World Behind or The Mother, however, I think it unfair to hold it to that standard when those films starred such actors as Julia Roberts, Mahershala Ali, and Jennifer Lopez.
However not having A-listers also resulted in the Rebel Moons budget being dramatically lower. The star of Rebel Moon is very much Zack Snyder himself, and the fact a film sold just on the director can hit 100 million views is a testament to his popularity. That being said, I would advise that if Rebel Moon is expanded to a full universe, Zack Snyder should cast a couple of well-known actors and actresses, why not call Gerard Butler, Lena Headey, Gal Gadot, Michael Fassbender or Amy Adams? Snyder is well-loved by the people he works with, and having a big-name celebrity or two could not hurt.
Was Rebel Moon A Success: An Unfinished Story
Next, the story of Rebel Moon is incomplete, we still have Part 2 releasing in April, and the two Directors’ cuts this summer. The full tale of Rebel Moon‘s success likely won’t be told till those have been released and the views are known. Zack Snyder has said that Rebel Moon concludes with The Scargiver, yet he has many other ideas for spin-offs.
Rebel Moon: A Child of Fire was badly received by critics and even a number of fans felt it was not the director’s best work. However, Zack Snyder has a history of his films vastly improving with extended director cuts, for example, Watchmen and Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice. I leave out Zack Snyder’s Justice League as the 2017 film was not his work. So come this summer it is very possible that the two extended editions of Rebel Moon Parts 1 and 2, will reframe the story, the extra content is sure to bring fans and even critics back to see this R-rated edition.
Was Rebel Moon A Success: How Netflix tallies Rebel Moon’s results
With Rebel Moon comprising two films and two extended editions, we don’t know how Netflix will tally its views and engagement. Will it be per film? Will they tally it all as one movie? We simply do not know yet. However, the saga being one story will indeed be factored into Netflix’s measurement of success. Netflix has said it wants to create more “Universes” of shows, which is why we are seeing the expansion of The Witcher and Stranger Things franchises. Rebel Moon gives Netflix a huge sandbox to play in, and with Snyder recently connecting it to Army of the Dead, even more narrative potential has been revealed.
Was Rebel Moon A Success for Netflix?
So this brings us back to the first question, was Rebel Moon a success for Netflix? While we may not know the full story of its success yet, we can intuit a few things.
The film gave Netflix 4 films for the price of one, Rebel Moon will finish likely finish its run in the Top 15 films on Netflix. It will have managed to reach 100 million views by the end of its run without any major stars besides its director.
So at the end of the day, we can’t definitively say “Yes or No” to the question Was Rebel Moon A Success, mostly because Netflix does not disclose what they consider a hit or not. 6 Underground, Bright, Spencer Confidential, and other major hits never received sequels. So views and minutes watched are not the only metric they use.
However, the truth is that Netflix has been looking to bring in more audiences to boost its subscriber base, and it has sought to do this in “Universes” of stories and fanbases of filmmakers and actors. Rebel Moon was a test to see if the fans who came for Army of the Dead, had stayed or would remain loyal to Zack Snyder in a post-DC world.
The numbers we have for Rebel Moon show this test was a success! Zack Snyder’s fans followed him and turned an original IP film into a widely viewed film and Netflix managed to bring all of Zack Snyder’s fans over to the platform. This is worth a lot, if all of Snyder’s Netflix films can garner 50-100 million views on the regular that is more valuable than a single Top 10 placement.
I think Netflix has found success with Rebel Moon, the film and its sequel/Directors Cuts don’t need to be Top 10 hits for Netflix to have got what it wanted. Now the next question to ask is this, was Rebel Moon a big enough hit to expand the universe? Only time will tell.
However, I suspect Zack Snyder will be hanging around Netflix for a very long time.
