We have a history in The United States. Democrats and Republicans nearly 100% of the time are the most likely winners of an election. However public opinion over the last 20 years has shown significant dissatisfaction with the 2-Party System. 60% of Voters think a 3rd Major Party is needed. It’s not the first time conditions were like this. In 1860, 1912, 1948, 1968, and 1992 were the last elections where a 3rd Party or an Independent threw a monkey wrench at the establishment.
RFK Jr Is Polling High
It looks like it’s happening again. Robert F Kennedy Jr. since he left the Democratic Primary to run as an Independent last October has polled the best for an Independent/3rd Party Candidate since Ross Perot. Of course, there are obstacles in Kennedy’s way that he’s going to need to prepare for.
You have Neo-Liberal idealogy against his campaign for his Conspiracies, Anti-Vax sentiments, alleged association with Republicans (That’s not new from people who vote Blue), and resistance from far-left voters who do not support his opinions on Israel/Gaza Genocide that’s going on. The last one might be a minor issue, but considering Joe Biden and Trump’s polling numbers hurt for having similar positions it would be wise to empathize with Palestinians more, it doesn’t mean he has to be anti-Israel just anti-Netanyahu.
When polled against Trump, Biden, Haley, and Philips, RFK Jr has the highest favorability out of all of these candidates. Now granted any polling you take with a grain of salt, but keep in mind when you see polling you have to see consistency. Now some polls have him as low as 10% but some are closer to 30%. It’s also important to keep in mind we don’t have official nominees for either party. Yes, while Biden and Trump are the preemptive nominees at the moment there’s uncertainty about their ability to be re-elected. Trump has indictments and Biden’s age has become a concern amongst even his die-hard supporters.
Ranked Choice Voting May Be The Key
Watching Election Map YouTube Videos it seems voter behavior, despite a majority wanting an alternative to Trump & Biden, will remain the same. The one state right now where he could go against the Polls is Maine as they have Ranked Choice Voting. How, you might ask, especially with him only polling single digits there?
With Ranked Choice Voting it’s not just who gets to Number 1 it’s the majority that people support. So, sure Biden & Trump do poll better than RFK Jr, but ask those same voters who their second choice is? It’s not Cornel West, it’s not Jill Stein, it’s not a Libertarian Candidate, RFK Jr. has polled better than any third-party candidate in over 30 years.
So yes while he is not doing great numbers it’s important to note he’s most likely a second choice for Voters. Trump voters will never pick Biden second nor would Biden Voters pick Trump second and that’s not factoring in how many people will Rank Kennedy first. Would Biden be a second choice or would Trump? It’s is entirely possible Kennedy gets so many 1st & 2nd Choices on the ballot in Maine that he wins there.
Maine historically has supported Independent Candidates even before Ranked Choice Voting. Junior Senator and Former Governor Angus King was elected in every election since becoming an Independent. Ross Perot was in Second place in most of the state in 1992. The other thing is, the election is 10 months away and support for both major frontrunners has significantly diminished so is it really that ridiculous of a theory that RFK Jr wins Maine?
Does RFK Jr Have A Chance?
The only way I don’t see RFK Jr winning Maine is if his support shrinks. It’s not like he’s had massive rises in many polls. Anything he says or does could change that momentum. Right now if you go online you’ll see he’s labeled a Zionist, an Anti-Vaxxer, a conspiracy theorist, and yeah Kennedy isn’t my first choice either, but he’s our best shot at beating the 2-Party System.
Winston Churchill once said Democracy is the worst system of government but it’s the only one that’s proven to work. There is no perfect candidate and even if Kennedy wins Maine it’s going to be near impossible to win other states and yeah polls are to be taken with a grain of salt, but the one thing you can’t dismiss about polling is consistency.
Even if Kennedy is elected as the 47th President, we still have elections on the state and federal level that largely either go red or blue, but we will see a shift in the coming years and if places like, Wisconsin can abolish Gerrymandering there’s hope we can elect people outside The 2-Party System.
My final prediction for Kennedy: He gets 20-25% of the popular vote and scores a historic upset in the State of Maine. If a major scandal happens the week of the election to Trump & Biden then it’s possible he could win another state or two which could possibly result in a contested election, which I hope happens, congress would have a meltdown over who gets to be POTUS.
